What Comes Next For Bolivia?
Latin America has seen many coups throughout its history, but in 2024, a coup in Bolivia was quickly quashed, and life returned to normal relatively quickly. This is a win for Bolivian democracy, but it is also an oddity and somewhat of a warning sign. Bolivia finds itself in a difficult position after the coup, despite it being quickly quashed and order promptly restored. This raises the question: With the coup quashed and investigations underway, where does this leave Bolivia?
As of recently, the Bolivian public prosecutor’s office launched a criminal investigation against General Juan Jose Zuñiga and other participants for the attempted coup against President Luis Arce on June 26th 2024. According to the Latin American Post, more than 30 active, retired and civilian military personnel were arrested in connection to the attempted coup. Those arrested include General Juan Jose Zuñiga, former head of the navy Juan Arnez, former head of the mechanized brigade Alejandro Irahola. Among them was also Vladimir Lupa Salamanca, commander of an F10 unit in Cotapachi, Cochabamba. He was identified as a sniper and his arrest highlights the severity of the situation. The investigation has unveiled that the plot includes civilians, whom the Prosecutor’s Office plans to summon for questioning. This would broaden the scope of the inquiry and raise questions about the extent of civilian support for the coup and the political dynamics in the country.
While coups are not new in Latin American history, the region has seen a resurgence of political instability, with the main struggle for stability coming from within rather than from external forces. Besides Bolivia, Colombia is another example, with the National Liberation Army guerrillas and other paramilitary groups such as the Gaitanist Self-Defense Forces of Colombia. However, in Bolivia’s case, the coup highlights the necessity to foster public trust in the government, which it currently lacks, fueled by the failed coup and economic turmoil. The feeling of unpredictability is evident through Victor Vargas, a 45-year-old shoe shop owner, who told AP News: ‘Right now, we’re in a dreadful crisis. No one buys anything anymore. We don’t know what’s going to happen.
This is due to economic turmoil fueled by a heavy dependence on American dollars; there is now a shortage of US Dollars in the country, exacerbating the crisis. Bolivians have lost trust in President Luis Arce, who continues to deny the country’s economic crisis. The state of the Bolivian economy is rooted in deep reliance on the American dollar, leading to depleting international reserves, mounting debt, and ongoing failure to produce essential exports like natural gas. Arce has recognized a difficulty in obtaining US Dollars but denied there was an economic crisis; this is although the Millenium Foundation warned of an economic decline and a 12% fiscal deficit. However, Arce’s denial of an economic crisis is not entirely incorrect as the Bolivian government points out that, for example, gasoline prices are rising but this is something that the entirety of South America is facing.
According to the Bolivian Ministry of Economy and Public Finances, Uruguay is seeing gas prices at an average of 2 USD per liter while Bolivia is at 0.54 USD per liter. In Bolivian Bolivianos, gas prices in Uruguay are at 13.81 Bolivianos while gas prices in Bolivia are at 3.73 Bolivianos. This goes further as prices for foodstuffs have also risen in Bolivia yet it is affordable relative to the prices they can find in neighboring Argentina. For example, prices for rice has risen in Bolivia and Argentina but prices haven’t risen to the same extent as Argentina. Bolivia sees a kilogram of rice go for 10.60 Bolivianos while the same kilogram of rice in Argentina goes for 16.80 Bolivianos.
This is also somewhat compounded by Bolivian monthly earnings in December 2023 being ~732 USD or 5,056.03 Bolivianos. Assuming it is the same for 2024, this does not lend itself to a comfortable life but it appears to be an income that one person can live off of. However, it is likely that it would be complicated for a family of 4 to be able to afford it without much difficulty through Bolivianos, which is likely why Bolivians prefer to use US dollars alongside the benefit of the dollar being a stable currency. Although the economy may be in a better shape on paper than previously thought, this is not a state of affairs to be satisfied with nonetheless as seen through the people’s own discontentment.
There is also an assertion that the “failed coup d’etat” was fabricated in order to boost President Arce’s popularity, which was what General Zuñiga had asserted. This is an allegation that political opponents, such as former President Evo Morales who declared he would run against the incumbent President although he is ineligible to run for office, have latched onto. Whether or not the coup was a charade or not, this is an assertion that Bolivians seem to find believable due to their distrust of Arce. Victor Vargas had told the Associated Press on the coup: “He should think about Bolivia’s economy. Make a plan to move forward, find a way to get dollars and work to move Bolivia forward. No more of these childish ‘self-coups’.” It has yet to be seen how the effects of this accusation of a ‘self-coup’ to increase popularity will manifest in the Bolivian elections.
At the moment, no international observers have publicly commented on the prospect of a “self-coup by President Arce to increase his own popularity. Overall, the Bolivian people seem to be heavily distrustful of President Arce due to a variety of reasons, mostly due to the economic decline he denies is a crisis and the alleged ‘self-coup’. While Evo Morales is ineligible to run and has fallen out of favor with Bolivians – due to his autocratic tendencies and having circumvented the Bolivian constitution to stay in power until his removal in 2019 –, he continues to try and secure the MAS candidature despite his ineligibility as per the Bolivian Constitution.
Nonetheless, this proves to be a major challenge for the country going forward as the Arce presidency faces a declining economy, scarcity of US dollars, a distrustful populace, an alleged “self-coup” continuing to ring in the minds of people and an ex-president attempting to reach the levers of power despite his ineligibility. Only time will tell how the future of Bolivian politics will go as well as where the people choose to go.
Derek Roldan | Latin American CorrespondentDerek Roldan Torres is a Puerto Rican senior student who is currently studying at the University of New Haven, pursuing an International Affairs degree. Through his research and writing, he wishes to bring to attention the political issues the Caribbean and Southern Cone currently faces and the stories it holds. Through the Caribbean, Cuba tends to dominate the American news cycle while some stories in Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and etc. go relatively underreported by comparison. Through the Southern Cone, the region proves to be an especially important battleground as its economic importance increases. In reporting and researching these regions, he hopes to increase the understanding of these regions and their importance to the United States and the wider world to an English-speaking audience.
